This post originally had a paywall for the ER plays this week. They are now either completed or in process. Green Goose Trader is a reader-supported publication. To receive ER alerts in advance on Sunday’s and support my work, consider becoming a premium paid subscriber.
Check out my article published earlier today at GG Alerts:
I’ve been on holiday in France for the past two weeks. I don’t want it to end, but ugh. Back to 8 to 12 hours a day on Monday for me, not including trading…
The market has now been in consolidation for the past three weeks. The big questions traders, retail and professional alike, are asking is “when” and “how big” will the break out be. If we knew the answers to those questions, we would be on holiday for longer than two weeks. I continue to be bullearish and will trade what I see as well as what I am good at - Earnings.
Since April 2nd, below are all of the alerts associated with the OP Swing Trading group (Spring 2022 ER Season), Green Goose Trader, and Summer 2022 ER Season.
Spring 2022 Earnings Season had 29 out of 35 ER plays that were non-directional. The average position size was $250. Results were decent.
Summer 2022 Earnings Season has kicked off with mixed results to date. As always, I don’t really get excited about positive or negative results until the sample size is much bigger.
Note that there are two trades in play (alerts were provided to premium subscribers in advance last week). Their ideal entry periods have passed - trade plans are presented below in the paid content section. Final results of the plays will be reported in next week’s post for free subscribers on Sunday.
For the current ER Season, we will be providing a lot more directional alerts in addition the core non-directional IV crush type plays. All alerts will be based on a system that relies on a Historical Integrity System. For the coming week here are both directional and non-directional IV crush opportunities:
Trade Plans for Current Directional Plays
Note - I prefer to have an equal number of bearish and bullish directional plays.
Over the past 4 ER’s, buying 30 delta calls 7 days before earnings generated the following results:
The chart lines up with a bullish prognosis with target 1 combined with IV rush into ER resulting in a good potential of profit while at the same time providing a line in the sand of where we are wrong.
Over the past 4 ER’s, buying 50 delta puts 12 days before earnings generated the following results:
The chart is in a bearish downtrend with the 13 eMA acting as resistance. Target 1 is a the most recent pivot low. If it breaks below, I expect it to head to Target 2.
Iron Condors Candidates for Upcoming Week
ABT 0.00%↑ Entry: Tuesday, 19 July (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit:
EOD on Wednesday, 20 July. Position size: $250
UNP 0.00%↑ Entry: Wednesday 20 July (Past performance 4 out of 4 wins). Exit:
EOD on Thursday 21 July. Position size: $250
PM 0.00%↑ Entry: Wednesday 20 July (Past performance 4 out of 4 wins). Exit:
EOD on Thursday 21 July. Position size: $250
DHI 0.00%↑ Entry: Wednesday 20 July (Past performance 4 out of 4 wins). Exit:
EOD on Thursday 21 July. Position size: $250
TSLA 0.00%↑ Entry: Wednesday 20 July (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins). Exit:
EOD on Thursday 21 July. Position size: $250
STX 0.00%↑ Entry: Wednesday 20 July (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins). Exit:
EOD on Thursday 21 July. Position size: $250
Directional Candidates for Upcoming Week
Entry: EOD on Monday, July 18 with weekly Calls (40 delta), Exit: EOD Wednesday, July 20th. This play is based on 4 out of 4 wins based on entering calls 3 days before ER and exiting just before ER. Position size to $500, stop at $250. Sell 1/2 at double.
Entry: EOD on Tuesday, July 19 with Aug12 puts (40 delta), Exit EOD on Wednesday, August 10th. This play is based on 4 out of 4 wins based on entering puts 22 days before ER and exiting just before ER. Position size to $500, stop at $250. Sell 1/2 at double.
Real time alerts on the above will be provided to a private Telegram group (access granted to all annual subscribers of Green Goose Trader).
The above are candidates for paper trades.
DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.
Exiting both DHI and UNP at a profit.
DHI and UNP earnings iron condors in play. PM, TSLA, and STX were no go's.