Week 2 of Fall 2022 ER Season saw the Green Goose account recover back to break even. It was a good week with an 80% win loss ratio and marginal week with a 1.76 profit factor.
The above results show what I alerted members in last weeks post, The Numbers Game (now unlocked for all readers of this publication). Note that the account results that are published follow set rules as laid out in the welcome email and video for premium subscribers.
Entry is based on selling an iron condor with the short legs +/- the cost of an at the money weekly straddle. I entered each of these plays as noted and exited at the end of the day the following day.
Last weeks post clearly pre-announced that I planned on entering the following iron condors just before earnings as follows:
Monday
Tuesday
BA - The ideal short strikes for BA were $139 and $155. Given the next available strike above $155 was $160, the ideal long strikes were $134 and $160. This made the available credit approximately $1.15 vs. a risk of $3.85. My rules state that I will not play if the maximum risk is over $2.50. Sometimes I go up to $3.00. But this was a clear case of a “no go” due to risk.
Wednesday
Thursday
Note on GILD… This was a full loss per my standard rules and I am reporting it as loss for this publication. However, in my real account I adjusted this play into a winner. GILD earnings were a blowout this season and it was clear very early in the day that the market would put tailwinds behind anything positive. I ended up buying back my short GILD Oct28 $73 calls for $1.70 at open and holding my $74 calls until close and selling for $5.00 (the put portion of the play expired worthless). Total profit on this play made this week a good week. I hope to write about a rules based adjustment system in a future post.
For next week, here are the planned ER plays…
Earnings Iron Condors
There are a lot this week and it will be difficult to play all of them…
Monday, 31 October 2022
NXPI (4 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Monday…
DVN (3 out of 4 wins). Reports BMO on Tuesday…
Tuesday, 1 November 2022
AMD (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Tuesday…
EA (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Tuesday…
ABNB (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Tuesday…
Wednesday, 2 November 2022
COP (3 out of 4 wins). Reports BMO on Wednesday…
MAR (3 out of 4 wins). Reports BMO on Wednesday…
DDOG (3 out of 4 wins). Reports BMO on Wednesday…
Thursday, 3 November 2022
SQ (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Thursday…
AMGN (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Thursday…
TWLO (3 out of 4 wins). Reports AMC on Thursday…
Here are links to the plays so far this week. The Tuesday entries did better than one would think if looking at the chart. I exited the put side of DVN when the the price hit the short leg. I have regrets about exiting both the short and long put and not just the short put (holding the long) - coulda, woulda shoulda. ABNB was at break even EOD even with that big move I exited only the put side. EA was a nice winner. I lost track of time and wasn't able to enter AMD.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/4ec52dae-597c-11ed-821e-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/6bf9ca46-5b4e-11ed-821f-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/bc1f040c-5b4c-11ed-821f-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/d03f23ce-5b4f-11ed-821f-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
Note that I only exited one side on several so they are still open. I'm expecting the open sides to expire worthless on Friday.
Weds EOD plays were COP, DDOG, and MAR. I was only able to get into COP. DDOG didn't fill and MAR had too much risk.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/1d22b2d6-5b51-11ed-821f-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
Small winner on NXPI.
Next up AMD, EA, and ABNB. If I have time, I'll also consider DVN.