…and researching after hours.
I have been trading for the past 15 years or so. In the beginning years, I did so by aggressively speculating without a deep knowledge of what I was doing beyond having read a few books (starting with Trading Options for Dummies). I made money; I lost money. I was lucky because I took a step back to get some training while my account was still green after having lost a significant chunk of my profits.
In my opinion, novice traders make mistakes based on many things. Many posts in this newsletter are about the most important aspects of being successful in the market (money management). Psychology plays a huge role inside of money management. It also plays a role in how we watch the market and make decisions.
Patience
Over the years, I have learned to be patient and to not try to force the market to do what I want. Everyone has heard the adage “Trade what you see, not what you want.” Duh. Of course. But if you look back at your own trading history and can identify the top mistake, what is it? Mine is jumping the gun on a pattern that I think is happening (or what I want to see).
Slowing down helps me be patient. The way I do this is to primarily trade daily candles.
So for all past trades reviewed for free subscribers or advance alerts provided for premium subscribers, setups and decisions are made at the end of the day when the daily candle is fully formed.
Patience gives me a professional traders income part time (one hour per day).
The advantage of trading only daily candles is that for a majority of asset classes, timing of a daily candle close is 4:00 PM for US equities and 5:00 PM New York time for Forex and Futures. New York close has a total of five candles during a week, so I only need to dedicate five hours per week with my previously developed trading algos. I love being able to have a normal day job in another sector of interest (water pollution control) and earn extra cash or capital for future investments. Per above, that extra this month is a nice little bonus. Note that January is usually a challenging month for my systems.
Review of alerted trades
Premium subscribers of this service receive advance alerts. Free subscribers have the benefit of gaining visibility of the where, why, & when. My hope is that all subscribers learn my methodology and can apply to their own systems or trading. Here is the activity from this past week (alerted to premium subscribers through either the GG Alert Substack (https://ggalerts.substack.com) or through the Green Goose Trader private Telegram channel, starting with current open trades:
EBAY (long calls)
Currently open. Originally alerted on January 3rd to the GG Alerts group. I bought 4 EBAY Feb17 $45 calls for $1.25 each (total risk $500). My order to sell 2 contracts at a double was filled on January 6th; as stop was put in to sell if the option value went to my entry at $1.25. On January 11th, I sold one additional contract for $3.45 and adjusted the remaining contract to a $45/47.50 spread by selling one EBAY Feb17 $47.50 call for $2.00. A $545 profit is now locked in, I have removed the stop and will let this trade go until expiry - if EBAY is > $47.50 on Feb 17th, I will earn an additional $250 in profit.
EURUSD (long)
Currently open. Originally alerted on January 9th - I bought 36,000 units at 4:45 PM New York time. 18,000 units were sold for 88 pips profit ($158) and the stop was moved up to break even. I eventually changed to a 132 pip trailing stop. This trade is still open with the trailing stop guaranteeing a 41 pip profit if stopped out. I will also close if my exit indicator triggers on the daily timeframe.
CRM (long puts)
Currently open. I alerted CRM 1/2 hour before the US Equity close on Friday, January 13th as it approached the top of a descending channel. I bought one CRM Feb17 $140 put for $1.42 with a stated goal of either exiting at a double or adjusting into some type of spread within a week. On January 19th, I alerted that I was adjusting CRM to a put butterfly by selling two CRM Feb17 $135 puts and buying one CRM Feb17 $130 put. The butterfly locked in $58 in profit (which cannot be lost). Now it is just a waiting game. It looks like CRM may break through the descending channel. But I’ll just hold in case the market takes a downturn.
GBPAUD (long)
Currently open. On January 19th, I alerted this trade to the private Green Goose Trader Telegram channel. I bought 32,000 units based on a 225 pip stop. It is currently underwater, but my exit indicator has not triggered. It will either reverse back up, get stopped out, or my exit signal will trigger and I’ll exit 15 minutes before the close of the day it triggers. No stress.
CADCHF (short)
Currently open. On January 19th, I alerted this trade to the private Green Goose Trader Telegram channel. I sold 48,000 units based on a 96 pip stop. It is currently underwater, but my exit indicator has not trigger. It will either reverse back up, get stopped out, or my exit signal will trigger and I’ll exit 15 minutes before the close of the day it triggers. No stress on this one either.
MS (Earnings Iron Condor)
This was alerted in my January 8th post. Entry on Friday, January 13th in the last 15 minutes of the trading day. I entered four contracts of a MS Jan20 $88/89/95/96 Iron Condor in advance of Tuesday, Jan 17 earnings before market open. This trade went against us, but I alerted in the Telegram channel towards the end of the day that I was holding. I alerted and exited on Thursday morning NY time for a nice profit.
Note that Earnings Iron Condors take advantage of IV crush after announcements. This was the third ER play this season. Our win/loss ratio is now 66.67% with two wins (JPM & MS) and one loss (TSM).
Combined Asset Class Performance to Date in 2023
GG Alerts: 44.55% win/loss ratio + 2.45 profit factor
ER & Swing Trades: 80% win/loss ratio if two current open trades factored + 6.99 profit factor
Forex: 50% win/loss ratio on closed trades (but it’s one win and one break even). Three open trades, one of which has profit locked in.
For all Premium subscribers, here are the preplanned ER opportunities for the coming week:
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