Last Sunday’s post for premium members is unlocked for all subscribers to this Substack. It can be found here. It clearly shows which earnings plays I intended on playing.
If a play is planned for a certain date, it is always important to verify the actual date of earnings. Entry is always just before close on the date of earnings (if the stock reports after market close) or at close the day before (if the stock reports before market open). MA changed on us - it was originally supposed to report on Tuesday, but it was reconfirmed for Wednesday.
We had a perfect week for preannounced earnings iron condors: TXN, MA, ROKU, and AMGN. Here is a recap of each trade:
TXN
Texas Instruments reported earnings after market close on Tuesday, April 25th. Implied volatility was sky high at an average of 57.5% setting up a nice and wide $157.50/160/177.50/180 iron condor (Apr28 expiry) for a $64 credit on $186 risk per contract. To stay within the systems earnings risk management profile, only 1 contract was possible. The day following earnings, TXN declined 2.91% but implied volatility had a massive crush. The iron condor was bought back for a total profit of $49 (26.4% ROI).
MA
Mastercard reported earnings before market open on Thursday, April 27th. Therefore entry of an iron condor was just before close on Wednesday with the strikes at $352.50/355/377.50/380 for a $79 credit on $171 risk per contract. To stay within the systems earnings risk management profile, only 1 contract was possible. The day of earnings, MA increased 1.88% but implied volatility crushed. The iron condor was bought back for a total profit of $50 (29.2% ROI).
ROKU
Roku reported earnings after market close on Wednesday, April 26th. Implied volatility was sky high at an average of 220% setting up a nice and wide $47.50/48.50/65/66 iron condor for a $32 credit on $68 risk per contract. To stay within the systems earnings risk management profile, 3 contracts were possible. The day following earnings, ROKU moved 0.80% and implied volatility had a massive crush. Given the stock finished almost exactly in the middle between wide short strikes and there was only one day left before expiry, I held onto the trade and and let it expire. Total profit was $96 (47.1% ROI).
AMGN
Amgen reported earnings after market close on Thursday, April 27th. A $230/232.50/250/252.50 iron condor was entered for a $61 credit on $189 risk per contract. To stay within the systems earnings risk management profile, 1 contract was possible. The day following earnings, AMGN moved 0.25% . The trade expired worthless and total profit was $61 (30.7% ROI).
It was a good week.
Here are next weeks planned plays:
Wednesday, 3 May (Entry end of day)
DDOG - reports before market open on Thursday. Win/loss ratio of earnings Iron Condors is 100% over the past four ER’s.
MRNA - reports before market open on Thursday. Win/loss ratio of earnings Iron Condors is 75% over the past four ER’s.
QCOM - reports after market close on Wednesday. Win/loss ratio of earnings Iron Condors is 75% over the past four ER’s.
ETSY - reports after market close on Wednesday. Win/loss ratio of earnings Iron Condors is 75% over the past four ER’s.
Thursday, 4 May (Entry end of day)
SQ - reports after market close on Thursday. Win/loss ratio of earnings Iron Condors is 100% over the past four ER’s.
PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!
This past week's results were good
DDOG - loser
MRNA - winner
QCOM - winner
ETSY - winner
SQ - winner
So far this season, the win/loss ratio is 78.57% and the profit factor is 2.08.