January is what it is… It also tracks with previous January’s over the past several years (which for some reason is a challenging month). The win/loss ratio is a little deceptive as TraderSync counts break evens as a loss (I count them as a win - so the % in my mind is 57.69%).
I am currently on business in Europe and have just spent the last ten days in France. When I eventually move back here this coming summer, it is going to be an interesting transition from working a 996+ schedule (Asian style of working 9 AM to 9 PM 6 days per week) to coming closer to the French expectation of 35 hours per week. Gut feel is that I’ll fall somewhere in the middle.
Anyway, I met up at a cafe in Paris on Saturday with a friend launching a startup using satellite imaging combined with AI to identify illegal pollution. (His start up is interesting but not the subject here.) He introduced me to ChatGPT, something that has been getting a lot of press lately but also something I haven’t looked at.
Anyway, I opened the application up and played around with it. Pretty amazing actually. For fun, I asked it to write a blog post comparing forex trading with eating cheese. Here is the title and intro it gave me in the less than 30 seconds it took to write an entire blog post:
"Trading Forex: A Cheese Lover's Comparison"
When it comes to trading forex, many people think of it as a dry and complicated endeavor. However, as a cheese lover, I like to think of it in a different way: as a delicious and nuanced endeavor, much like enjoying a fine cheese. In this blog post, I'll be comparing trading forex to eating cheese and showing you how the two have more in common than you might think.
LOL. I’ll spare readers the rest... I am not going to cheat - what you get in following Green Goose Trader is my perspective on money management, trading psychology, system development, and a raw account of trades that I actually make based on pre-alerted setups (for premium subscribers). Free readers get an after the fact accounting of my audited trades.
Closed Trades from January 23 - 27th
Earnings Plays
MMM - Earnings BMO on Tuesday, Jan 24.
MMM historically moves less than a few percent in the day following ER. An iron condor sold just before ER and exited at close the following day has generated an average of 28% ROI in 75% of previous cases. This opportunity was provide in last weeks premium section of Green Goose Trader and via the private Telegram channel 30 minutes before close on Monday, January 23rd. The exit was alerted the following day - I realized a $51 loss.
GE - Earnings BMO on Tuesday, Jan 24.
GE historically also moves less than a few percent in the day following ER. An iron condor sold just before ER and exited at close the following day has generated an average of 24% ROI in 75% of previous cases. This opportunity was provide in last weeks premium section of Green Goose Trader and via the private Telegram channel 30 minutes before close on Monday, January 23rd. The exit was alerted the following day - I realized a $69 gain
TXN - Earnings AMC on Tuesday, Jan 24
TXN generated an average of 29% ROI in the past three out of four ER’s when using an iron condor. This opportunity was provided in last weeks premium section of Green Goose Trader and via the private Telegram channel 30 minutes before close on Tuesday, January 24th. The exit was alerted the following day - I realized a $63 gain
ABT - Earnings BMO on Wednesday, Jan 25
ABT generally moves less than 3% following ER. Given the upward channel combined with an expected support near $109 (both the 48 eMA and 200 sMA), I alerted a $109/113/113/117 iron butterfly 30 minutes before close on Tuesday. Despite the gap down outside of the upward channel, the IV crushed and there was a decent profit at close on Wednesday. I took it - a gain of $104.
Wednesday - IBM - Earnings AMC on Wednesday, Jan 25
IBM generated an average of 27% ROI in the past three out of four ER’s when using an iron condor. This opportunity was provided in last weeks premium section of Green Goose Trader and via the private Telegram channel 30 minutes before close on Wednesday, January 25th. The exit was alerted the following day - I broke even.
Wednesday - LVS - Earnings AMC on Wednesday, Jan 25
LVS generated an average of 31% ROI in the past three out of four ER’s when using an iron condor. This opportunity was provided in last weeks premium section of Green Goose Trader and via the private Telegram channel 30 minutes before close on Wednesday, January 25th. The exit was alerted the following day - I broke even on this one as well.
Forex Trades
No new forex trades were made last week. All three open trades were closed. My GBPAUD and CADCHF trades were stopped out on Tuesday. My remaining long position on EURUSD generated an exit signal on Wednesday; final profit was $437.
GG Alerts (https://ggalerts.substack.com)
Open Trades
Two set and forget adjusted trades are still open - EBAY and CRM. There is no reason to close them as both have profit locked in. CRM is now a lotto. EBAY in particular is doing very well and will profit an additional $250 on top of the already locked in $545 if it is over $47.50 on expiry. I may consider locking in an additional profit by converting to a butterfly by selling a $50/52.50 call credit spread. Decision to be made next week!
Risk Graphs Courtesy of TomsOptionTools.
For premium subscribers, the following are next weeks ER opportunities…
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