The above are my results for Summer 2022 Earnings Season and include all of the alerts provided to this blog/newsletter.
One week to go before Fall 2022 Earnings Season! Before we get there, I’m looking forward to running Session 3 of the Swing Trading / ER Strategies Course for premium subscribers on Tuesday evening at 8:30 PM Eastern. Details are located after the paywall… Note that all premium subscribers also have access to all recorded sessions.
I am finally home in Penang after 18 days of travel to Canada and Europe. These trips are always interesting, but exhausting. I find it difficult to trade as I normally (outside of GG) do so I am happy that we were in the “off” season for the subject of this blog. Man did I miss some fireworks. So be it - my account is intact and ready to go.
MARKET ANALYSIS
I’d like to call subscribers attention to both the VIX and SPY and make some observations.
Since the beginning of this year, when the market started experiencing extreme volatility, the VIX has either corrected when it touched or exceeded 35 as seen on labels 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I have placed the same arrows and numbers on SPY below, essentially its mirror image.
It is interesting to see that, yes - academics, financial entertainers, and traders alike are correct that volatility goes up on flushes and down on bounces. My earnings plays are completely centered on implied volatility so it is going to be interesting to see where the market is positioned at the start of the next ER season.
The green box at A is interesting as it represents a “Low Base”. For more details on trading a low base see this Video. My current theory is that while we have seen another extreme of VIX =>35, we are also in a low base. Price action may correct up to meet my fast eMA (which is also declining). But we are likely to see downward pressure to break down further over the next week to ten days until the next ER season begins.
Where are my targets? I am looking at the $342 to $343 range before a bounce, which is a 161.8% extension of the latest zig zag measured from the latest touch to the descending trend line and the failed attempt at a bounce. Note - I may be wrong…
I will not be trading long, short, or sideways until SPY either breaks down or up out of the current low base. Ideally, I am hoping (yes - I’m allowed to have a little hopium from time to time) that this flush happens just before or during the commencement of Fall Earnings Season in two weeks. Cash is king chez moi for the moment…
Please join me live for Session 3 of the Swing Trading / ER Strategies Course on Tuesday, October 4th at 8:30 PM Eastern at the following zoom link.
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/88117306807