Summer Earnings Season this year was slightly “below average” and brought $2,160 in profit on a total of 45 trades. Win loss ratio was 64.44% and profit factor was 2.06. Each play risked an average of $250.
So here we go for this Fall Season!
I reset my account last week and began to track my trades with a fresh start based on my system of generating income from predictable movements in implied volatility. It is thrilling to having a blank page in front of me (per above) and to not know what will happen over the next few months. It keeps emotion out of my trades and forces me to follow my rules.
All plays for the forthcoming week, which have a foundation of at least 75% historical win/loss ratios, are shared on Sunday and unlocked for all free subscribers on Friday’s after the plays have been completed. Last week’s play (pre-ER season trade on TSM) was shared to all subscribers in the following post: Fall 2022 Earnings Season Kicks Off. It is always nice to have an initial success!!
As planned and pre-announced, the Green Goose Trader system sold an iron condor near close on Wednesday, October 12th.
TSM reported earnings on Thursday morning before market open. The trade plan states that the iron condor shall be exited just before close after earnings, in this case end of day on Thursday, October 13th.
Despite the fireworks following CPI, implied volatility crushed and TSM did not move outside of the short wings of the iron condor. 19.1% profit was generated on exit of the iron condor (by buying back the short legs and selling the long legs).
This bread and butter trading style is used on stocks that demonstrate the same behavior in a minimum of the last 3 out of 4 earnings. This system consistently demonstrates a high win/loss ratio and profit factor each earnings season. I have approximately 150 stocks that I track and will play up to 1/3 of them per season. As mentioned Premium subscribers of this publication receive my planned plays each Sunday.
Here are Fall Earnings Season Week 1’s forthcoming plays (5 of them!)…
Earnings Iron Condors
See the following video for instructions:
Monday, October 17th - end of day:
JNJ (earnings BMO on Tuesday). Win/loss ratio: 3 out of 4 previous earnings.
Tuesday, October 18th - end of day:
ABT (earnings BMO on Wednesday). Win/loss ratio: 3 out of 4 previous earnings.
Wednesday, October 19th - end of day:
LRCX (earnings AMC on Wednesday). Win/loss ratio: 4 out of 4 previous earnings.
UNP (earnings BMO on Thursday). Win/loss ratio: 4 out of 4 previous earnings.
PM (earnings BMO on Thursday). Win/loss ratio: 3 out of 4 previous earnings.
Also - for those that missed it, here is the recording for Session 3 of the Swing Trading / ER Course:
Loss on UNP = $157 and LRCX = $59. I'm holding PM until expiry for a potential gain of $164.
FYI...
1) I took the loss on ABT.
2) I'm in all three of Weds EOD plays -
PM - https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/ab376eca-500e-11ed-821a-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
UNP - https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/d098b632-500f-11ed-821a-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns
LRCX - https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/41c5b740-500d-11ed-821a-061a3d52649f?ref=https://www.tradersync.com/?ref=michaelkuhns