This past week was extremely active in terms of both opened and closed ER plays - a total of 10. The amazing part for me was that all plays were pre-planned during the weekend over a couple of hours and fully executed in the last 15 minutes or so of open each day. That’s a total of 3 hours and 15 minutes of “work” while I was in my last week of holiday here in France.
Out of the 10 closed plays (pre-announced to premium subscribers), we had 9 wins and 1 loss. Not bad.
Total profit on our $10 k earnings play account is at $1,492 for ER Summer 2022 Season. We are at roughly 50% of the total profit made in ER Spring 2022 Season and still have 6 weeks to go.
Here is a summary of the closed plays this past week (all of which were detailed in last week’s post Summer 2022 ER Season Plays).
Directional Pre-ER
FVRR
Directional play planned and entered the previous week based on a historical pattern of moving up prior to ER. I bought two FVRR Aug19 $35 calls for $2.55 each on July 28th. I alerted the group and exited in the afternoon of August 3rd before earnings (BMO on August 4th) for a total profit of $410 (80% ROI). I’m not going to cry over spilled milk, but I exited too early and not to plan, which stated to exit EOD. An EOD exit would have paid $550 (107.8%). Note the mistake is listed in my trade journal. I already know that this is one mistake I tend to repeat. TraderSync provides me visibility of how often I make this mistake. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/079eb584-10ad-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
BYND
Premium subscribers were alerted on Tuesday, August 2nd that I was entering BYND Aug05 $33 puts for less than $2.80 (I managed to get $2.75) based on a historical pattern showing the stock declines heading into earnings combined with a rush in IV. Exit was planned for just before ER, scheduled on Thursday AMC. The above move allowed a 21.82% profit, mostly due to IV rush. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/3961ff4a-12f1-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
RIVN
Premium subscribers were alerted on Tuesday, August 2nd that I was entering RIVN Aug12 $34.50 puts for $2.02 based on a historical pattern showing the stock declines heading into earnings combined with a rush in IV. Earnings is scheduled for August 11th AMC. The position, an “all-in” play (meaning I’m willing to lose 100%) will be exited before ER, either at a double or in the last few minutes of open on August 11th. Trade in play.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/0ea5f7ca-12f1-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
24 Hour Earnings Iron Condors
Note on Position size - I try to align my max risk to $250 or less on Earnings Iron Condors (# of contracts = $250 / risk per contract).
DVN
I entered three DVN Aug05 $57/58/67/68 Iron Condors for a $0.26 credit per contract ($0.74 risk) EOD on Monday, 1 Aug per plan. DVN moved -1.53% post ER; IV crushed. I bought back the Iron Condor for $0.12 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/629caa48-1230-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
GILD
GILD had funky strikes and poor liquidity on the planned entry date and time, EOD on August 1st. Subscribers were informed in the comments section that I was skipping.
ABNB
I entered five ABNB Aug05 $103/104/129/130 Iron Condors for a $0.47 credit per contract ($0.53 risk) EOD on Tuesday, August 2nd per plan. ABNB moved -1.13% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor near close on August 3rd for a $0.33 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/35ac3ff0-12f6-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
EA
I entered four EA Aug05 $120/121/136/137 Iron Condors for a $0.36 credit per contract ($0.64 risk) EOD on Tuesday, August 2nd per plan. EA moved +3.41% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor 45 minutes before on August 3rd for a $0.20 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/b086e632-12f4-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
COP
I entered three COP Aug05 $87/88/95/96 Iron Condors for a $0.33 credit per contract ($0.67 risk) EOD on Wednesday, August 3rd per plan. COP moved -1.58% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor before close on August 4th for a $0.1 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/df7855a0-13be-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
TWLO
I entered four TWLO Aug05 $84/85/110/111 Iron Condors for a $0.38 credit per contract ($0.62 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. TWLO moved -13.51% which was not enough to offset IV crush post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor before close on August 5th for a $0.13 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/1af8695e-14d1-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
NET
I entered three NET Aug05 $49/50/56/57 Iron Condors for a $0.32 credit per contract ($0.68 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. NET blew this one out and moved +27.06%. IV crush post ER didn’t matter on this one. I was assigned short shares near close for $56 and had to exercise my $57 calls. Total loss was $0.68 per contract. Fail.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/6188932c-14d0-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
SQ
I entered four SQ Aug05 $80/81/100/101 Iron Condors for a $0.39 credit per contract ($0.61 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. SQ moved -2.2% which was not enough to offset IV crush post ER. The short strikes were never in real danger of being crossed so I let the position expire worthless for a $0.39 profit per contract. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/cad53b38-14cf-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
Post-ER Directional
META (Facebook)
In last weeks post for premium subscribers (Summer 2022 ER Season Plays), I noted that I was looking at entering a META Aug 12th or 19th $150/155 Bull Put Credit Spread on Monday and would alert annual premium subs on Telegram if I was proceeding. The dip early on Monday provided a fantastic entry and an alert was sent. I ended up entering two META Aug26 $150/155 Bull Put Credit Spreads for $2.10 credit ($2.90 risk). I didn’t realize that I had entered the wrong expiry per my plan until mid-week. When I make a mistake, I generally exit - win or lose. As META had made a good run up, the profit was decent at a total of 41.3%. Success.
https://shared.tradersync.com/ricepirate/1bb05180-11a3-11ed-9835-061a3d52649f
The following are the plays for the coming week…
24 Hour Earnings Iron Condor Candidates (August 8 - 13)
AIG
Entry: Mon, 8 Aug (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Tues, 9 Aug
WYNN
Entry: Tues, 9 Aug (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Weds, 10 Aug
DIS
Entry: Weds, 10 Aug (Past Performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Thurs, 11 Aug
Please watch the following YouTube Video for instructions on how to determine the strikes of an Earnings Iron Condor:
Post-ER Directional (or Non-Directional)
META
META still represents an opportunity and I regret exiting my bull put credit spreads last week. If it opens between Fridays close and the upper resistance line at $172.50 on Monday and I can make a minimum of 100% ROI, I am interested in entering the following bearish out of the money put calendar. This particular play provides additional opportunity for enhanced profit via adjustment on Friday expiry of the short leg.
Hi all. I am back home after 15 hours of flights, 8 hours of layover, an overnight in a hotel due to a missed connection, and a 4 hour train ride - 45 hours door to door. Sorry I couldn't get the signals out.
AIG (48/49/55/56) was a winner
WYNN (60/61/71/72) was a winner if you got in.
DIS (104/105/120/121) - we will know EOD today.
RIVN exit is today EOD, win or lose.
META is not looking great from a calendar perspective. However, I'll be able to adjust to a bull put credit spread today/tomorrow by exiting the short put and replacing it with a later dated short $165 put. I could even just buy a call with the credit to make it a risk reversal. Not worried...
AIG IC looking like $48/49/55/56 strikes for $0.25 or better ($0.75 risk).