Bread & Butter Week
Earnings Season - Summer 2022
This past week was extremely active in terms of both opened and closed ER plays - a total of 10. The amazing part for me was that all plays were pre-planned during the weekend over a couple of hours and fully executed in the last 15 minutes or so of open each day. That’s a total of 3 hours and 15 minutes of “work” while I was in my last week of holiday here in France.
Out of the 10 closed plays (pre-announced to premium subscribers), we had 9 wins and 1 loss. Not bad.
Total profit on our $10 k earnings play account is at $1,492 for ER Summer 2022 Season. We are at roughly 50% of the total profit made in ER Spring 2022 Season and still have 6 weeks to go.
Here is a summary of the closed plays this past week (all of which were detailed in last week’s post Summer 2022 ER Season Plays).
Directional play planned and entered the previous week based on a historical pattern of moving up prior to ER. I bought two FVRR Aug19 $35 calls for $2.55 each on July 28th. I alerted the group and exited in the afternoon of August 3rd before earnings (BMO on August 4th) for a total profit of $410 (80% ROI). I’m not going to cry over spilled milk, but I exited too early and not to plan, which stated to exit EOD. An EOD exit would have paid $550 (107.8%). Note the mistake is listed in my trade journal. I already know that this is one mistake I tend to repeat. TraderSync provides me visibility of how often I make this mistake. Success.
Premium subscribers were alerted on Tuesday, August 2nd that I was entering BYND Aug05 $33 puts for less than $2.80 (I managed to get $2.75) based on a historical pattern showing the stock declines heading into earnings combined with a rush in IV. Exit was planned for just before ER, scheduled on Thursday AMC. The above move allowed a 21.82% profit, mostly due to IV rush. Success.
Premium subscribers were alerted on Tuesday, August 2nd that I was entering RIVN Aug12 $34.50 puts for $2.02 based on a historical pattern showing the stock declines heading into earnings combined with a rush in IV. Earnings is scheduled for August 11th AMC. The position, an “all-in” play (meaning I’m willing to lose 100%) will be exited before ER, either at a double or in the last few minutes of open on August 11th. Trade in play.
24 Hour Earnings Iron Condors
Note on Position size - I try to align my max risk to $250 or less on Earnings Iron Condors (# of contracts = $250 / risk per contract).
I entered three DVN Aug05 $57/58/67/68 Iron Condors for a $0.26 credit per contract ($0.74 risk) EOD on Monday, 1 Aug per plan. DVN moved -1.53% post ER; IV crushed. I bought back the Iron Condor for $0.12 profit per contract. Success.
GILD had funky strikes and poor liquidity on the planned entry date and time, EOD on August 1st. Subscribers were informed in the comments section that I was skipping.
I entered five ABNB Aug05 $103/104/129/130 Iron Condors for a $0.47 credit per contract ($0.53 risk) EOD on Tuesday, August 2nd per plan. ABNB moved -1.13% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor near close on August 3rd for a $0.33 profit per contract. Success.
I entered four EA Aug05 $120/121/136/137 Iron Condors for a $0.36 credit per contract ($0.64 risk) EOD on Tuesday, August 2nd per plan. EA moved +3.41% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor 45 minutes before on August 3rd for a $0.20 profit per contract. Success.
I entered three COP Aug05 $87/88/95/96 Iron Condors for a $0.33 credit per contract ($0.67 risk) EOD on Wednesday, August 3rd per plan. COP moved -1.58% and IV crushed post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor before close on August 4th for a $0.1 profit per contract. Success.
I entered four TWLO Aug05 $84/85/110/111 Iron Condors for a $0.38 credit per contract ($0.62 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. TWLO moved -13.51% which was not enough to offset IV crush post ER. I bought back the Iron Condor before close on August 5th for a $0.13 profit per contract. Success.
I entered three NET Aug05 $49/50/56/57 Iron Condors for a $0.32 credit per contract ($0.68 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. NET blew this one out and moved +27.06%. IV crush post ER didn’t matter on this one. I was assigned short shares near close for $56 and had to exercise my $57 calls. Total loss was $0.68 per contract. Fail.
I entered four SQ Aug05 $80/81/100/101 Iron Condors for a $0.39 credit per contract ($0.61 risk) EOD on Thursday, August 4th per plan. SQ moved -2.2% which was not enough to offset IV crush post ER. The short strikes were never in real danger of being crossed so I let the position expire worthless for a $0.39 profit per contract. Success.
In last weeks post for premium subscribers (Summer 2022 ER Season Plays), I noted that I was looking at entering a META Aug 12th or 19th $150/155 Bull Put Credit Spread on Monday and would alert annual premium subs on Telegram if I was proceeding. The dip early on Monday provided a fantastic entry and an alert was sent. I ended up entering two META Aug26 $150/155 Bull Put Credit Spreads for $2.10 credit ($2.90 risk). I didn’t realize that I had entered the wrong expiry per my plan until mid-week. When I make a mistake, I generally exit - win or lose. As META had made a good run up, the profit was decent at a total of 41.3%. Success.
The following are the plays for the coming week…
24 Hour Earnings Iron Condor Candidates (August 8 - 13)
Entry: Mon, 8 Aug (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Tues, 9 Aug
Entry: Tues, 9 Aug (Past performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Weds, 10 Aug
Entry: Weds, 10 Aug (Past Performance 3 out of 4 wins), Exit: EOD on Thurs, 11 Aug
Please watch the following YouTube Video for instructions on how to determine the strikes of an Earnings Iron Condor:
Post-ER Directional (or Non-Directional)
META still represents an opportunity and I regret exiting my bull put credit spreads last week. If it opens between Fridays close and the upper resistance line at $172.50 on Monday and I can make a minimum of 100% ROI, I am interested in entering the following bearish out of the money put calendar. This particular play provides additional opportunity for enhanced profit via adjustment on Friday expiry of the short leg.